Our Views: The GOP gains in 2012 voting

After the 2010 Census, reapportionment of the U.S. House of Representatives had a generally positive impact on Mitt Romney’s prospects this fall.

The presidency is, after all, won in the Electoral College — and each state’s vote is based on its number of senators, two for each state, and representatives, based on population.

In The Washington Post, analyst Chris Cillizza compared Romney’s admittedly “narrow” path to an Electoral College majority. Narrow, because most of the biggest states — California, New York, Illinois — are safely Democratic in presidential elections.

Only Texas, with 38 electoral votes, is reliably Republican. But as part of the reapportionment driven by the 2010 Census, Texas grew by four House seats.

Of the reliably Republican states, Louisiana was one of the few to lose a House seat, and is thus down to eight electoral votes, for six House members and two senators.

The conventional wisdom is that President Barack Obama has an edge as the campaign begins, because of the nature of the Electoral College tilt to Democrats in the big states.

But Cillizza compared the Romney course to the nomination with George W. Bush’s win in 2000, just 271 electoral votes, one more than the needed 270.

“In eking out that victory, Bush not only carried the South and Plains states with a near sweep but also claimed wins in swing states such as Nevada, Colorado, Missouri and the major electoral-vote prizes of Ohio and Florida,” he said. “If Romney was able to duplicate Bush’s 2000 map, he would take 285 electoral votes — thanks to redistricting gains over the past decade.”

Those gains have generally accrued to the Republicans, in other words. If Romney is able to upset an incumbent president, the population shifts revealed in the census are part of the reason.

Comments

1) Comment by DMJ - 07/05/2012

Here's a little perspective.... If Barack Obama only wins the states John Kerry won in 2004, he'll only need to add Ohio or Florida (both of which he won in 2008) to win in November. Now....if he loses both Ohio and Florida but wins two of the additional states he picked up in 2008 (N. Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, N.C.), he still wins.

2) Comment by jobo - 04/05/2012

Oh, Being_Stupid, I always think your posts are real, until I read your name, and then remember they're satire. Keep up the good work.

3) Comment by Being_Stupid - 04/05/2012

Excessive taxes and Big Government Bureaucracy drives business growth out of Democrat States and into GOP States. The population will continue to shift to GOP States as Socialism becomes more prevalent in Democrat States because the good paying jobs and low cost of living is thrives in GOP States. Just further proves that socialism never works. People move away from socialism and move to areas of more freedom.

4) Comment by ex-louisianian - 04/05/2012

Romney's EV ceiling is 270. He is currently polling worse than McCain did in May 2008 in VA, OH, and FL. He can't possibly do better than what George W Bush did in 2004 outside of a second Lehmann Bros. economic collapse (which the GOP in the House will engineer with all their might).

5) Comment by Lannonmac - 04/05/2012

I find it very interesting that “Cillizza compared the Romney course to the nomination with George W. Bush’s win in 2000, just 271 electoral votes, one more than the needed 270.” Only a couple of problems with this game plan, first is that there is no third party candidate that will syphon votes away from President Obama like Ralph Nader syphoned votes away from Al Gore. And second, Mitt Romney’s brother is not the Governor of Florida.