State has enough teachers through 2017

The aim of the pre-kindergarten system overhaul “is not to say, ‘You did not do well last year, you’re done.’ ” John white, state superintendent of education

Despite recent declines, Louisiana should have an adequate supply of public school teachers for the next five years, state officials said Tuesday.

The forecast was prepared by Mark Brantley, a consultant for the Education Estimating Conference, which tracks public school trends.

“In the aggregate, there appears to be a surplus of teachers to meet the near term demand for classroom teachers,” according to the 36-page report.

Teacher ranks have dropped for two consecutive years and are likely to do so again in the current one.

The total dipped from 50,004 in 2009-10 to 48,066 in 2011-12.

Another reduction to 47,366 teachers is forecast for the current school year.

But Brantley’s report predicts that teacher numbers will then rise for the next four school years, to 49,042 by the 2016-17 school year.

About 3,000 new teachers per year will stem from new certifications, 500 through a visa program to attract teachers from other countries and about 50 per year for out-of-state teachers who meet certification standards.

While teacher ranks fluctuate, the report did not spell out why the numbers would grow over the next five years.

Brantley also said the breakdown of new and veteran teachers shows a good mix by looking at those who are vested — eligible for retirement benefits — and non-vested.

However, Brantley said individual school districts may experience shortages, including when it comes to those who teach special education, mathematics and science.

Most teachers who leave the profession either retired — nearly 25 percent — or were forced out by layoffs — 18 percent, according to exit interviews for the 2010-11 school year.

Personal reasons account for another 13 percent, according to the study.

Mary-Patricia Wray, legislative and political director for the Louisiana Federation of Teachers, questioned predictions that the state will have plenty of teachers over the next five years.

Wray said the outlook is based in part on suspect student enrollment projections.

Brantley’s review says the state should have an adequate supply of teachers for the next five years despite a predicted growth in the student population.

That total is expected to rise to nearly 658,000 students by 2017, compared with an estimated 638,000 in the current school year.

In another area, Louisiana’s dropout rate declined from 18,665 students in 2005-06 to 10,520 in 2009-10 and 9,376 in 2010-11.

The improvement likely stems from a push by the state to improve its high school graduation rate to 80 percent by 2014.

Comments

1) Comment by Traveler - 14/11/2012

NearBarbarian: thank you for your insightful comments. I'm glad that you made the point that educators in Louisiana do not have "actual unions." LFT and LAE are "professional organizations" for teachers. The two groups lack clout, because in most school systems in the state, teachers do not have collectively-bargained contracts. Teacher-members who recognize this fact are largely unresponsive to appeals from either group for their members to become more politically active. While these two organizations are wasting their resources competing against one another for members, they are not able to focus on challenging all the forces allied against teachers that you listed. Teacher-members of each organization should be DEMANDING that these two groups "bury the hatchet" and join together, in order to offer the teachers some real representation.

2) Comment by Frustrated - 14/11/2012

This article is suspect. The consultant is getting paid to paint a rosy picture for the DOE. I don't believe a word of it.

3) Comment by NearBarbarian - 14/11/2012

As with other ethnographic and statistical studies, the human is left out. Given the dramatically declining morale that teachers are suffering and will suffer, fewer teachers will enter the field and many will leave. Moreover, demoralized professionals will not perform well; nor should they, particularly when they have been demonized by the people and the government that they serve. If we want good teachers, we need to be good to teachers. As the old saying goes in education, "If you don't feed the teachers, they'll eat the children." Regrettably, because we do not have actual unions in the bayou state (like most of the Deep South), teachers, as well as education in general, are at the mercy of the whims of a fickle, uninformed citizenry; a short-sighted legislature; a self-righteous governor; and millions of PAC and outside-interest dollars. Teachers are people, too, and they can't be expected to perform well in the current environment.

4) Comment by zombee - 14/11/2012

Are these numbers taking into account the massive number of teachers who will be dubbed "ineffective" and fired based on ludicrous new teacher evaluation system?

5) Comment by Traveler - 14/11/2012

Starley: my guess is that this consultant has included LRCE and TFA "educators" in his estimate. What I'd like to know is how many college freshmen are choosing teaching as their major, in comparison to the number say, 5 or 10 years ago. It's probably a safe bet that, in light of the unfair assault on teachers that typifies the current administration, the number of education majors is 'way down. Since the class of 2017 is just a few years away, I think we'll see a HUGE teacher shortage then. But we need not fear----after all, TFA has promised us a never-ending rotation of two-year, come-and-go, miracle workers.

6) Comment by starley - 14/11/2012

Then, someone explain to me why there are so many 'fast-track' teachers (LRCE, TFA) in classrooms. These people have no education in teaching children, they get a quick 6 week course over the summer and then, become responsible for educating children. If there were enough qualified teachers, we would not need these unqualified people in classrooms. But, does it really matter when they are running the DOE, anyway? poor kids.....