Our Views: Looking back to GOP base

While Mitt Romney has locked up the Republican presidential nomination, significant parts of the party base still view him with reserve, as not a “tried and tested conservative.”

The phrase, from California blogger Jon Fleischman, seems somewhat out of sync with what opinion polls have been showing nationally: that the national race is close, in large part because voters are leaving the undecided columns for their traditional party allegiances.

A characteristic of politics in this country over elections since the 2000 race — in which Vice President Al Gore won the popular vote but lost in the Electoral College — is a strong division between the parties, with relatively few people really undecided.

Over the couple of weeks that Romney has nailed down a majority of GOP convention delegates, the former Massachusetts governor has been able to garner the approval of the vast bulk of Republican-leaning voters in national polls. Not unexpectedly, President Barack Obama does the same with Democrats.

This year’s race thus far resembles the 2000 or 2004 races rather than 2008, when independents broke heavily for Obama.

Will that parallel hold true as the Obama campaign increases its attacks on Romney as holding extreme views?

The famous gaffe by a Romney aide about an Etch-a-Sketch move by Romney to the political center makes Fleischman’s comment more reasonable: Will conservatives, despite their opposition to Obama, be excited about a Romney who decides to moderate his positions as the November election nears? It’s not clear that he will, of course.

We would argue that Romney has taken some politically inadvisable stands, such as on immigration policy, to enhance his appeal to conservatives. But overall, Romney’s image is not that of an Arizona sheriff anxious to bust heads of illegals.

Moderation in tone, even if not in the letter of the policy, might well make Romney more electable nationally without disturbing those in the party’s base.


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Comments (21)


1) Comment by gvm - 18/06/2012

@Elderly Man: what, specifically, can you point to that corroborates your assertion that the First Lady is arrogant? Just because she has a mind and is not afraid to use it doesn't make her arrogant. Did you find Hillary Clinton to be an arrogant First Lady?

2) Comment by gvm - 18/06/2012

Mitt Romney is: not a statesman, unprincipled, indecisive, and stupid. Moreover, he panders to the most rabid members of the GOP and is entirely out of touch with the average citizen. If Mittens wins - the american people will surely lose. We do not need a "business man" in the highest office in the land - we need a statesman. On that score President Obama trumps the presumptive GOP candidate Romney. It is only because the overall level of intelligence displayed by the average american voter is so low that Mitt is even in the running anyway. That curious collection of charlatans, adulterers, and absent minded old men that comprised potential GOP contenders has been utterly lacking in every conceivable way.

3) Comment by InPVille - 18/06/2012

Who Louisiana votes for in Presidential Elections if impacted by where the candidates hale from as well as for their political affiliation. Louisiana voted for Jimmy Carter in his first run for the office and for Bill Clinton both time he ran for the office. The next few months should be interesting.

4) Comment by DMJ - 18/06/2012

Well...for instance, in 2008, people were excited to vote for Barack Obama. Sure, there was the added motivation of voting against Palin, er...McCain, but Obama's supporters' slogan wasn't "Anyone but McCain." But hey, if Romney is going to use the John Kerry stategy of "We hate this guy!!!", he's more than welcome. My point is....I've seen plenty of Obama signs and stickers and Ron Paul signs (who's not even running anymore) but I have yet to see a single Mitt Romney yard sign or sticker....and we live in bright red Louisiana. I get the anti-Obama sentiment....but where is the pro-Romney narrative? Sure, we're still several months away, but like I said....troubling, no?

5) Comment by InPVille - 18/06/2012

@DMJ: "Question....isn't it troubling for Republicans that they're more excited to vote AGAINST someone than FOR his opponent?" -[**]- How would this be different from what has so often been the case throughout the long and frequently sad history of voting choices?

6) Comment by 8.3 - 17/06/2012

ScotB can write a complete rational sentence, many of the self professed "conservatives" on these Advocate forums have demonstrated difficulty in doing so. Makes one wonder about correlations.

7) Comment by ScotB - 17/06/2012

Up until the end, the media showed Walker losing in Wisconsin. The narrative was, "His support is slipping among independents." There are plenty of stories you can find on the internet that show that was the story the media was working to perpetuate. Many have derided him as "right leaning", but pollster Scott Rasmusen has been consistently the most accurate in his predictions. I have voted both Republican and Democrat, so I like to think of myself as a "right leaning" independent. I try not to find myself duped by the media. A new poll today sponsored jointly by Foster McCollum White and Baydoun Consulting, shows Obama with a one point lead in Michigan. You should know that those two firms are known as having Democrat affiliations. Wishful thinking?........we shall see!

8) Comment by DMJ - 17/06/2012

Romney winning Michigan?! Even after that whole "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" debacle? Hmmm..... like I said....wishful thinking.

9) Comment by ScotB - 16/06/2012

DMJ. I'm very familiar with the electoral map of '08. This is '12. I predict Romney will win Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Colorado. I figure Obama will still win Minnesota and New Mexico. Also, Romney will win Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Arizona. With Obama's attack on the coal industry, I wouldn't even be surprised if Romney takes Pennsylvania. In fact, Illinois is the only safe bet for Obama in the rust belt. Everybody's got an opinion. We'll know in five months. It's not hate. Romney is a better choice who believes in the ideals that made America great.

10) Comment by DMJ - 16/06/2012

Another odd thing I've noticed....the very hyperbolic nature of the GOP's favorite slogan "anyone but Obama" should be troubling as well. I mean....anyone? This means that the Republicans could potentially elect someone not fit for office just because of anti- Obama sentiment. This should be troubling for all of us...especially Republicans. They're running the risk of letting their fear and hate get the better of them. Perhaps they already have...

11) Comment by DMJ - 16/06/2012

Question....isn't it troubling for Republicans that they're more excited to vote AGAINST someone than FOR his opponent? And someone should show ScotB the electoral map results from the '08 election. Obama took Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico. None of these are on the coasts. Even if Obama only wins the states Kerry won, all he needs is either Florida, Ohio or two of the additional states he won in '08. Victory? Maybe....but landslide? That's very wishful thinking. It will be more like '04, in that neither candidate will have a mandate-sized victory.

12) Comment by Elderly Man - 16/06/2012

President Obama almost makes President Carter look competent. Our president promised change but all we got was a sell out to private health insurers, continuing aimless war, leaders without leadership from investment banking, and an extravagant, arrogant First Lady. Governor Romney is a front man for the same reactionaries who control our President. I am profoundly disappointed with President Obama. I disliked both candidates. I live in a state almost certain to go for the Republican candidate. That too is sad.

13) Comment by 8point6 - 16/06/2012

@ScotB: Agreed. IMO, the majority of people are fed up with this current president. Just like we were when carter was president. The news media won't dare acknowledge this. I look for a Romney win this November, albeit, he is not my choice. I will be voting for him, since OMG! obama must go.

14) Comment by ScotB - 16/06/2012

One way of looking at the politics is dividing the electorate among conservatives, liberals, and independents. Conservatives outnumber independents 2 -1. Independents are the the fastest growing of these three factions. One of the most telling features of the independents is they are dissatisfied with traditional media slanting the news. I think many Americans will be surprised in November. It is in the news media's interest to continue to project the race as tight. It is also in the two campaign's interest to continue that narrative, to keep their bases energized. It is my belief that Mr. Romney, barring a major gaffe or misstep, will win in a landslide. We have not seen a President so out of touch with the regular American people since President Carter. The only mitigating factors are Romney is not as likeable as Reagan and Obama is not as unlikeable as Carter, but nevertheless, it is just a two man race. Outside of the liberal bastions of the east and west coasts, the remainder of the electoral map will color red, in my opinion.

15) Comment by jdk944 - 16/06/2012

While Romney is not my choice for the GOP, ANYONE but Obama will be an improvement!!

16) Comment by Whatnow - 16/06/2012

Deep disappointment in Obama's policies will win Independents over to Romney. Too many people wanted a change and didn't see the change they hoped for. The Hope and Change was mere Hype and Blame.

17) Comment by DMJ - 16/06/2012

Romney's a liberal? Ha! Silly Season has officially begun.

18) Comment by tradewinns - 16/06/2012

given any change vs. four more of the same or worse, i'll vote for change (and hope for the best).

19) Comment by Elderly Man - 16/06/2012

Nor is President Obama liberal. He does not deserve reelection. He has not fought for much.

20) Comment by Cousin Dave - 16/06/2012

Mitt isn't a moderate, he's a liberal. And he will lose because he isn't conservative enough.

21) Comment by Elderly Man - 16/06/2012

I voted for Senator Barry Goldwater for president, President Ford, for George H. W. Bush, and for George W. Bush. I will not vote for another Republican until the GOP cleans up its act. Running against birth control is absurd.