Analyst handicaps GOP in election
Gov. Bobby Jindal’s former chief of staff said Monday he believes President Barack Obama is well positioned for re-election, while he expects Republicans to make more gains in Congress.
Timmy Teepell, now a partner in the OnMessage national political consulting firm, said former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney “probably” will become the Republican nominee. Teepell said he expects Romney to beat former House Speaker Newt Gingrich on Tuesday in the Florida primary and then hold the lead over the course of a hard-fought next few weeks.
“This has been an interesting Republican nomination battle, to say the least,” Teepell said while speaking at a Press Club of Baton Rouge luncheon. “I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like this. It’s quite a mess.”
But it will get even tougher for Romney or someone else after that, Teepell said of the Nov. 6 election.
“It’s going to be a much tougher battle than most people think for Republicans to beat Obama,” Teepell said. “It’s a steep uphill climb.”
While polling indicates Obama has only a 2 or 3 percentage point lead over Romney, Teepell said, the Electoral College gives Obama a stronger edge.
Obama should win his base states that U.S. Sen. John Kerry won eight years ago along the Pacific Coast, the Northeast and much of the Midwest, Teepell said. That gives Obama 246 of the 270 needed electoral votes right there, leaving him essentially just needing to win Florida or Ohio to secure re-election, Teepell said.
Even if the president loses those two states, he could still win by taking the “West route” and securing New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada and Iowa for the victory, Teepell added.
A big downturn in the economy, though, could dramatically affect the race against Obama, Teepell said. Regardless, Louisiana is a virtual lock for the Republican nominee, he said.
But a likely Obama win “is going to make the Senate and congressional races all the more interesting,” Teepell said
OnMessage polling in January shows that 71 percent of independent voters believe the country is on the “wrong track,” and 52 percent of them have an unfavorable image of Obama. These factors push more voters toward Republican congressional candidates, Teepell said.
“The pessimism is near universal,” he said. “The independents are breaking the Republican way.”
The Democrats and two independents who caucus with them make for a 53-person majority in the U.S. Senate.
But the Democrats are defending 22 seats, compared with 11 for the Republicans. North Dakota, Wisconsin, Nebraska and others have open Senate seats, and Teepell said he believes Republicns have a “good edge” to control the U.S. Senate after the 2012 election cycle.
Republicans have a 47-seat majority in the House now and could see that lead grow, Teepell said.
The end result could be a “truly divided government” between the executive and legislative branches, he said.
OnMessage also worked on the failed presidential campaign for Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who was endorsed by Jindal.
Teepell said he still thinks it was “great” that Jindal backed Perry and that having done so will not have any long-term negative effects on the Louisiana governor. They are “close friends,” so the endorsement was a natural fit, Teepell said.
“It was a very easy decision,” he said.