Pat Shingleton for Sept. 19, 2012

With 72 days left in Hurricane Season 2012, 12 days remain in the most active month of the season. Experts say predictions are challenging because of variables such as temperature and humidity that are calculated for varying places and times. Hundreds of thousands of factors are considered. Due to 60 years of historical data to add to the models, additional predictions become complicated, similar to what we experienced with Hurricane Isaac. North Carolina State University recently reported researchers have developed a new “network motif-based model” that evaluates historical data for numerous variables in all places and at all times. This process identifies combinations of factors more “predictive” of seasonal hurricane activity. This process identifies hurricane activity for the forthcoming season on a probability scale. Fastcast: Cooler.